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While thinking about Bitcoin value one must ask what is the real Bitcoin adoption. This is hard to calculate but let's try to elaborate a bit:. World population is currently about 7. It would be nice if all of them were Bitcoin users but it's not possible for multiple reason, let's expand it more. Let's find some target group for potential Bitcoin users. First we cut some age groups. It might be a bit discriminatory but it's for modeling purpose. Furthermore, we cannot take all population as the base but only people with internet connection and we will get 3.
Now let's take a look at Bitcoin network. Many users might occupy multiple addresses so actually user count might be even 10 times smaller. Ok, let's assume there are 10 millions users. Then bitcoin addoption among target user group is about 0. If number of users is only 1 milion users then Bitcoin adoption is about 0. It's highly probable real state is somewhere between these numbers. In summary current Bitcoin adoption is between 0.
So we have approximate Bitcoin adoption about 0. With this calculated adoption, real Bitcoin price is current price - about USD. Here is the projection. So when you in few years see prices like these, don't be that surprised, it's just math while Bitcoin is gaining major adoption.
And when you hear someone predicting these insane numbers, well, that person not be that insane. And these projections are very conservative because even many younger people are adopting technologies and also Internet coverage is increasing in time and these calculations ignore those positive fact.
Adoption pace is also hard to determine except some approximation based on wallet counts and price. Wallet count is about 10x compare to 3 years ago and price is about twice. Based on that we can estimate 5x growth of user-base in 3 years. It's also worth to mention that current price is undervalued to adoption pace or another explanation might be that three years ago we had big price bubble which is also possible.
It might take less due to various factors but I doubt it will be be slower than 7 years from now. To finish this article without counting, I'll give you two most crypto regret quotation I've heard many time through last years:. One thing is suredon't worry about volatility that much, even in you're still among early adopters and maybe even among innovators. Things is, no matter when you join, you will always somehow profit if the project will not crash completely.
But earlier you join, greater your profit might be and also greater your risk as well as we all here are still Bitcoin pioneers. May God give us fair monatery system and bless our investment decisions! Why would it not People are ust beginning to find real uses for bitcoin. And buy as many mining contracts as you can afford! I dont think anyone really eexpected to be so sucesful for bitcoin ad altcoins even more so, this bull market just keeps going as if its reflecting how bitcoin rose 1 million percent in value, altcoins have a long way up and so does bitcoin!
Yes, the models look very optimistic although there is always some risk involved as always something can go wrong. So yeah, question now is not if but when it becomes mainstream. Another interesting thing is that even though it looks a bit like pozi scheem due to doubling prices, etc.
Adoption curve is not speaking about price decline but only about, well, adoption. Real looser might be financial institutions that will not adapt, but I don't think they are that stupid and I guess they are already slowly buying. Right now I'm really wondering if it goes smoothly up or if there will be some big shocks. I would be surprised if old system accepts this shift of paradigm without serious fight.
Major elites always fought for control over money supply. They might like Ripple because it only increase their profits and doesn't take power from them but they still hates Bitcoin and most of alt crypto projects.
I think bitcoin is already near peak adoption. It is because there are so many competing cryptos on the market. I have never bought bitcoin but I have 3 crypto currencies including steem. The reason bitcoin was so great was because it was liquid, a feature now shared by many others.
If you look at market capitalization bitcoin is losing marketcap steadily to other cryptos. Nevertheless, the supply demand fundamentals should keep the bitcoin price high measured in USD for the foreseeable future. Still you will get tens of thousands USD per Bitcoin for full adoption.
Target group is about 2 billion users similar to Facebook users. So adoption now is still very low and everyone here is early adopter at best. This is just a beginning for all crypto projects, Bitcoin included. It can take years to take it to mainstream. Due to the fast pace of technology I think 10 years is more than enough time for technology to reach the middle of its product life cycle. Bitcoin was successful in that it opened the door for other crytpocurrencies. The iphone 1 was very successful but the pace of technology and competition made it obsolete within a year or two.
If you are talking about cryptocurrency as a group then I agree we havent even seen the beginning of adoption yet. But just as the iphone1 was relegated to the dustbin of history I think bitcoin will be too within 20 years but there is no doubt that supply and demand will support its price and purchasing power.
I agree with you that bitcoin has the potential to go much higher but its growth and adaption will certainly be affected by other coins. Actually, steem was the first cryptocurrency I ever owned. Bitcoin has no platform like steem to generate demand. Just being a currency is no longer an advantage as other currencies offer specific advantages besides just facilitating transactions.
Thanks for your reply and I believe there is a lot of logic in what you are saying. The global market is big enough for a huge growth in bitcoin as well as other currencies. Also keep in mind that the reason Facebook has so many users is because it is a CIA project inqtel with government backing. In contrast, Bitcoin and other cryptos have are the enemies of the central bank controlled governments. For example first household workstation was available in and when it become mainstream? Also during some phases there is slower adoption, during another faster.
Yes, adoption is still very low. Your example with iPhone is valid for hardware but not for software, Bitcoin is evolving in time and when SigWit is enabled, it will move forward a lot. So it might never be obsolete. Of course there will be some more agile projects as Steem and another. But it's good we have so many crypto projects, it will move all the sector forward a lot.
Bitcon, same as Steem has actually lot of demand factors but not for everyone, as Steem is also not useful for everyone. Currently Bitcoin has lower inflation that Steem, therefore is better to store value, with Bitcoin you can directly utilize many interesting services like purse.
So although it has no integrated platform inside, there are multiple useful services and utilizations primarily built around Bitcoin. You are right, old world with most of its elites doesn't like crypto and Bitcoin because it's disrupting world system which was and still is source of their profit and power. They tried FUD and repression first, during next phase they might try to buy it all and manipulate like gold and silverwho knows.
But it will be hard for them. Once it's manipulated, community can build another project that is not owned by them and move on there. I am now following. How fast have wallets grown I imagine wallets per person would be somewhat stable.
Wallet numbers are growing about 2. Conservative estimation our real users might be about million users I guess. But it's better to put it low because there might be users who try it, leave and not return.
All of this affects demand. It's not my goal to calculate precise number IMHO it's not even possiblebut rather to calculate some ranges in which all of this is moving and identify possible underpricing or bubble and to show whether there is still space to grow or not. This post has been ranked within the top 80 most undervalued posts in the second half of May See the full rankings and details in The Daily Tribune: May 12 - Part II.
You can also read about some of our methodology, data analysis and technical details in our initial post. If you are the author and would prefer not to receive these comments, simply reply "Stop" to this comment. An important thing to remember is that many wallets generate a new address with every transaction.
There are exponentially more addresses out there than there are users. Adoption has so much room to grow! It is unfathomable how valuable bitcoin will be in a couple of years even. Just a few short months after this post. How many people touched Bitcoin up to and what is the current adoption pace?