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Login or Subscribe Newsletter. The team's algorithm allowed for increasing profit black relative to the price of Bitcoin blue. Scientists have crunched data to predict crime, hospital visits, and government uprisings — so why not the price of Bitcoin? Earlier this year, principal investigator Devavrat Shah and recent graduate Kang Zhang collected price data from all major Bitcoin exchanges, every second for five months, accumulating more than million data points.
Specifically, every two seconds they predicted the average price movement over the following 10 seconds. If the price movement was higher than a certain threshold, they bought a Bitcoin; if it was lower than the opposite threshold, they sold one; and if it was in-between, they did nothing.
Shah says he was drawn to Bitcoin because of its vast swath of free data, as well as its sizable user base of high-frequency traders. In the future, Shah says he is interested in expanding the scale of the data collection to further hone the effectiveness of his algorithm. When Shah published his Twitter study in , some academics wondered whether his approach could work for stock prices. With the Bitcoin research complete, he says he now feels confident modeling virtually any quantity that varies over time — including, he says half-jokingly, the validity of astrology predictions.
If you want to give Bitcoin a try without spending money, have a look at http: Bitcoin is unpredictable,crime however can be predicted along with all the other variables you mentioned because they have been around much longer than bit coin and we at least have a understanding of where it came from. We still don't even know who configured bit coin which is problematic because for all we know someone is in the system itself. Think about it,whoever made this technology knows the inns and outs.
We might not be able to remove Bitcoin volatility at this point, but perhaps having it be predictable will remove the concern over volatility, or lead to more stability as more players enter the market. These guys are full of it.
The correlation they have found won't last; they never do when dealing with the future. Pretty soon they will be telling us that they drive to work by only looking in their rear view mirror. It will work until the big truck behind them loses its brakes. Oops, hard to predict that. This kind of trading is good for price stability over the short term.
Let's hope it becomes more widely adopted. If you take part in an experiment then you affect the outcome of the experiment. If you observe how cattles graze and the environment that predicts their habits is one thing.
But to graze with the cattles is another. By taking part in the experiment the outcome over time is not predictable. You add an element to the unpredictability. There is indeed nothing new with this approach: I used it back in when trading on the interest rate futures for a French bank, then a Houston-based Commodity trading advisor. The returns were good. Am I missing something? It appears these guys didn't actually trade anything.
So these results mean nothing. My algorithm did 80x over 6 months and I'm an undergrad working alone Bayesian regression was used 25 years ago to predict stock returns with no great success. The problem is data-mining bias, which the authors do not address. They select the best performing models without a correction for multiple comparisons.
Obviously, the best model did well but many other models failed. The problem is which model to use forward. Add friction and you get a negative result. Let the algorithm wars commence! If you want to make money, find an unsophisticated place and start a smart war. The algorithm that evolves the quickest wins.
Long-Term Capital Management rev 2. Taleb has written extensively on the errors of this general approach. Interesting how people are attracted to the idea of getting money without producing anything of value. If you give me the ton of money that those guys got to produce such a crappy paper, I will debunk it and explain everything that is wrong with this They would have done better to simply buy at the start and sell at the end.
This is all over fitted. These sort of papers are worth less than the paper to print them. It is a shame that prestigious institutions such as MIT allow to publish such a rubbish. I am in the business of automated trading since years and papers showing such results are seldom reproducible. Authors claiming such a performance should either a provide access to code and data to make their experiments reproducible after all this is science , or b stop working in academia and start their hedge fund.
Those not acting according to a or b are charlatans, see http: Note that someone tried to reproduce the results of the paper here: The heavy math needs the manually picked-up clusters to work Fluorescent dye could enable sharper biological imaging Depth-sensing imaging system can peer through fog Scientists gain new visibility into quantum information transfer Exploring his depth of field.
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Courtesy of the researchers. Comments Kenneth October 21, How do I give you my money? And how will it get it back if it is a success? YOP October 21, Dominik Z October 21, I'm happy to give you my money to invest haha. Johnathan James October 21, Marcus Walker October 21, Kevin October 21, Dave Wu October 21, Coinspring October 22, Were exactly do you get data from "all major Bitcoin exchanges, every second for five months"?
Ben October 22, Bruce Jeffries October 22, Paul Jorion October 22, BitWorldCoin October 23, Sounds like another great innovation for bitcoin advocates. DK October 24, Michael Harris October 25, Dawkinsfan2 October 28, Freddy Kruger October 28, Dectis October 28, Noah Liot October 30, Davin Stewart November 2, Sorry, am I missing something here?
Again, am I missing something? Yooo November 14, Overfit, forward looking, and other leaks could explain this result. Archives Networks of probability Predicting what topics will trend on Twitter Improving recommendation systems.