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Bitcoin mining what is the point

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Bitcoin is an economic network — it started from nothing seven years ago and is growing fast. Its economics are much more interesting than its technology. The Bitcoin network is multi-sided, with two categories of participants, the users and the enablers. The users are merchants, consumers, investors and speculators, and the enablers are miners, exchanges and developers. As an economic network, Bitcoin exhibits network effects, both positive and negative. Network effects are observable in many other networks, such as telephones, fax machines, social media, PC operating systems and airlines.

In this blog I explore these network effects in Bitcoin from an economic perspective. Many are positive, and extremely powerful, but there is also one negative network effect that is a big challenge.

The numbers of merchants and consumers using Bitcoin may be small at the moment, but the more merchants there are accepting Bitcoin, the more consumers are likely to pay with Bitcoin; and the more consumers use Bitcoin, the more likely merchants are to accept it. This is called a cross-side network effect and it is a positive one. There are also same-sided network effects, for example the more investors there are, the more likely the price of bitcoins to go up, and the more it goes up, the more investors are drawn in.

The effect can be both positive and negative, as price drops can cause investors to leave. There is a similar same-sided network effect for speculators. The enabler participants are dependent on the user participants for positive cross-side network effects. The more the Bitcoin network is used, the more incentives there are for exchanges to set up to enable buying and selling bitcoins , for developers to build apps and platforms such as wallets or micropayment mechanisms, and for miners to compete for block rewards and transaction fees.

The miners are worthy of closer examination, as they underpin the whole Bitcoin network and make it work. Specifically, they compete with each other to create the blocks where bitcoin transactions are stored and they validate transactions through a proof-of-work consensus mechanism.

This immutability makes Bitcoin what it is: Miners make this happen because they get rewarded in bitcoins for their efforts, and bitcoins have value, so miners generate revenue. The more the network is used, the more valuable bitcoins become, so the more money miners make, the more they compete, and the more they compete, the stronger the immutability and trust of the network becomes.

As you can see, there are various sets of self-reinforcing dynamics in the Bitcoin network that interact and make it stronger and more valuable the more it used. In the following section, I look at the mathematics of these dynamics and specifically at the economics of:.

In the Bitcoin network there are millions of wallets that people have downloaded to transact in bitcoin, but in this analysis, I have chosen to use the daily number of unique Bitcoin addresses. Currently there are about , unique addresses used each day, a figure that has approximately doubled over the past year.

Taking the daily figures for the past year June — May , a scatter diagram of the Bitcoin market capitalisation number of bitcoins x market price versus the square of the unique addresses, does show a rough correlation between the two — applying a rather heroic least-squares fit to these points gives a formula:.

Please do not use this formula or rely on it to make any buying, selling or other decisions, it is empirical, based on only 12 months of daily data, unproven and will be different, perhaps very different, for the next 12 months of data to come.

I only highlight it here to make three observations:. However, the number of unique addresses then was only , Miners get paid block rewards and transaction fees. A new block is created roughly every 10 minutes, and the miner winning the race to create a block gets 25 bitcoins at the moment. The reward halves every four years, with the next halving date being in July this year. After this date, miners will receive only Additionally, miners receive transaction fees — these are set by the sender of a transaction, and can range from 0, in which case miners may ignore the transaction and never confirm it in a block to bitcoins in a recent case in April where it is assumed the sender made a spectacular error, perhaps transposing the fee with the principal.

However, the transaction fee over the past 12 months has averaged 0. Obviously, as the block rewards halve every four years, miners over time need to become less reliant on block rewards and more reliant on transaction fees. This means it is in their interest for the network to grow in use — the more transactions, the more fees and the more valuable the network which helps compensate for the fewer block rewards.

This again shows the positive network effects and incentives in the Bitcoin network. I expect that the economics of mining will change significantly as the source of revenue shifts from block rewards to transaction fees, and will be very different in the future — in particular, if Bitcoin transactions do rise to the billions per year, I would expect transaction fees to be a lot lower than 7 US cents per transaction.

This limit is already close to being reached — the miners may need the capacity to process 7bn transactions per year, or TPS, but even if they have it, they are constrained by the 7 TPS of the current Bitcoin network.

There is a massive gap between required and actual network capacity, and congestion is already occurring. Congestion is an example of a negative network effect and can significantly impact the economics and use of a network anyone taking a taxi in central London nowadays during the day can get first-hand experience of this network effect — slow, frustrating, expensive, regrettable.

Increasing the fee for a bitcoin transaction is not really an answer. Wallets are starting to calculate fees dynamically based on transaction size — this is probably improving confirmation and block efficiency, but it does not solve the congestion problem. Congestion is not the only negative network effect. It is clear that unless the Bitcoin network is configured to scale, then the positive network effects will reverse and the network will unravel — if users cannot get transactions confirmed they will stop initiating them, the number of unique addresses used then diminishes, the network value decreases making it unprofitable for miners, who then stop mining.

Solutions to the capacity issue already exist — block-size increases, segregated witness, Lightning networks to name a few. The challenge is for the enabler participants of the Bitcoin network to adopt these.

A Qualitative View The numbers of merchants and consumers using Bitcoin may be small at the moment, but the more merchants there are accepting Bitcoin, the more consumers are likely to pay with Bitcoin; and the more consumers use Bitcoin, the more likely merchants are to accept it. In the following section, I look at the mathematics of these dynamics and specifically at the economics of: Taking the daily figures for the past year June — May , a scatter diagram of the Bitcoin market capitalisation number of bitcoins x market price versus the square of the unique addresses, does show a rough correlation between the two — applying a rather heroic least-squares fit to these points gives a formula: I only highlight it here to make three observations: This illustrates the power of positive network effects when more people join and use the network.

Miners Miners get paid block rewards and transaction fees. My guess is that we will find out over the next few months.