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How exchanges can provide great fork futures. While very simple 1 equation! Skip the pitch and go right to the proposal itself. What is disputed is: For SegWit2x, some say yes. Today, we have bad tools for unraveling this mystery. How strongly do coin-owners hold their views? What do prospective but not current owners of Bitcoin believe? Unfortunately, this is very expensive — a little like starting a Civil War to change governments.

Unfortunately, I do not think it is a very informative experiment either. It does not achieve its goal, which is to measure the relative merit of each chain. These people are indifferent between chains objectively neutralbut since they started on the old chain, they will tend to remain there.

In one sense, of course, this is a very good thing. Moreover, the spinoff option imposes costs on the Old Chain. Users on the Old Chain must suffer fork attempt after fork attempt, one after the other. In response, people 0 015 bitcoin stock price now campaigning for their preferred fork. A new blog post on this horrible trend, and how to reverse 0 015 bitcoin stock price, is forthcoming.

As Kyle Torpey wrote recently in ForbesI proposed a solution to this entire set of problems over two years ago. Last week, BitFinex announced that they had implemented fork futures. The version was very permissionless, decentralized, private, and software-based.

But it did have a drawback: Which was not bad for July era blockchain technology. I presented it at Scaling Montreal or tried to, at least. The old version had a lot of overall cypherpunk-ness to it. 0 015 bitcoin stock price was the problem. The tradeoffs 0 015 bitcoin stock price fall out that way, if you ask me. It might initially seem worse, because it:. And my interest in blockchain prediction markets is precisely because I am convinced that PMs are unlikely to ever receive such endorsements!

It is like asking the CEO to fire himself, as I 0 015 bitcoin stock price explain later. And exchanges have a selfish incentive to implement the idea. And people already seem to trust exchanges sufficiently. So an exchange version is much less of a deal-breaker. An appeal to exchanges. The system below might seem a little strange, but it is very easy to implement, and it should make everyone happy.

In general, I think that BitFinex did a very good job. Oliver and BitFinex each try to address this problem in opposite ways: Both approaches are mistaken!

The biggest is that anyone with 0 015 bitcoin stock price shred of fork-doubt can never have any upside, only downside. But it is fine for OJ to want his money back, in the event of some contingency.

We can make everyone happy by acknowledging the true nature of the problem: But I would instead create eight new tokens, arranged into two markets, in order to fully partition the space of possible outcomes. These tokens are not trade-able blockchain tokens, nor will they ever be.

When the futures mature, all of these tokens will be swapped for 0 015 bitcoin stock price cash value and then destroyed. Half of these tokens 1,2,5, and 6 only enable full-reserve shorting.

But I much prefer this, where you buy a token in order to short. I would re-use a fancy trick that I used in my Hivemind project — the automated market maker details in appendix.

This trick provides permanent and generous liquidity across all eight tokens, and it also forces there to be a fully transparent log of all trades one that can be re-derived from the price chart. It is also much much easier than maintaining eight order books — trades occur atomically with a single formula, the exchange only needs to track the quantity of tokens issued. Users can always trade against the market-maker, so a counterparty always exists — even for weird trades.

This two-dimensional two dimensions per market, for each market might appear to be more-confusing to the end-user, but it might only be a matter of good UI. In this post, I am describing what happens under the hood.

Maybe, in the UI you only buy those. Token 8 should always have a price of zero, by my definitions below. And, optionally, Token 3 should also always have a price of zero see below. So this setup is really not as overwhelming as it might first appear.

Most important of all, we can 0 015 bitcoin stock price on each of these things. By wagering on 4, we can build Olivier Janssens his refund portfolio see last section. Again, I think that BitFinex did a pretty good jobbut I have some comments. 0 015 bitcoin stock price exchange should say that they will run Bitcoin Core 0.

That is the 1x network. Some people have a problem which the following language, of Section 6: Personally, I am fully in favor of language like this. The alternative trying to specify every minute detail in writing in advance is a lost cause.

It will lead to the legal 0 015 bitcoin stock price of software bugs, and DAO-like consequences. And it will lead, also, to long boring confusing paragraphs that no one reads. In practice, I believe that it will be very easy to tell the 1x chain from the 2x chain. If it has been earnestly attempted, then four of my eight tokens will have zero value. The cool thing is that each user has the opportunity 0 015 bitcoin stock price buy some of each set, such that most of them will be indifferent between the event happening or not.

But we still have to do a great job of defining it. However, to be clear, this criterion 3 should include something-like: This has a number of interesting consequences, depending on the inclusion and wording of criterion 3 above. Tokens 2,4,6,8 would be worth zero, and the 1,3 pair will be trading for the same values as the 5,7 pair. Part of what makes this bizarre is that miners could unilaterally deploy a 2MB extension block at any time. Although that is a bizarre feature of the scaling debate in general, and is not specific to futures markets.

For some reason, the pro-forkers are insisting on a hard fork. Those who wager that a larger blocksize will yield a higher price, will still earn money under the scheme defined here. Again, this is rather bizarre, because miners completely control the evil fork. 0 015 bitcoin stock price, if you ask me, it is just yet-another-wonderful-thing-about-prediction-markets that they expose all of these contradictions for what they are. Anyway, now that the dimensions of this setup have been defined they were: To do this, BitFinex would need to commit to listing both tokens conditional on the fork manifesting itself.

Which they should, because it re-emphasizes our concept 0 015 bitcoin stock price symmetry. I say that we take the closing price for the days Dec 11th through Dec 22nd, and take their geometric average which is: In this way, our definition has some nice properties: However, I wonder what happens if an exchange has to close during these days?

To account for this, we can throw out the four most 0 015 bitcoin stock price or missing values, and then take the geometric average of the remaining eight.

The Dec 11 through 22 dates are arbitrary, but they should be a healthy amount of time after the Fork Event would hypothetically happen. As previously mentioned, exchanges will be creating eight token-types. On December 31st, trading will end, and then in January the final prices for each token will be calculated, and users will automatically be cashed out. These tokens all have a value of zero if there is no fork.

These tokens are only valuable if the fork does not appear. If instead we call the NYA off, then it is the upper row which is worth zero. As we will see, Token 8 must always have a final value of zero.

Either the fork was attempted, in which case Tokens 2,4,6,8 are all worth zero; or else the fork was not attempted, in which case Tokens 1,3,5,7 are worth zero meaning that tokens 5,6,7,8 are worth exactly 0,1,0,0. We will exploit this fact to build OJ his magically-refunding portfolio at 0 015 bitcoin stock price end of this post. The left market is for the 1x coin, and the right market is 0 015 bitcoin stock price the 2x coin.

I also assume that we know which row we are zeroing out. Therefore we only need to 0 015 bitcoin stock price four calculations. We input four zeros for the failed row, and input our calculations below for the successful row. What is going on here?

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